Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Brad Lincoln, Potential Number 2?

In the seventh inning of tonight's game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners, Travis Snider was pulled from the game.  It was later discovered that he had been traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Brad Lincoln.  Many reports coming out of Rogers Sportsnet and other media outlets talked a lot about what the Jays gave up in this trade, but not a lot about what they received.  As for the reports that do offer information on Lincoln, such as this one, they do not go very in-depth. 

Travis Snider was once a highly touted prospect, ranking as high as 6th by Baseball America prior to the 2009 season.  While he demolished minor league pitching, he has struggled at the Major League level.  As a Blue Jay, Snider managed a career slash line of .247/.305/.429 prior to his final game with the team, over parts of five seasons.  He had totalled two years and fifteen days of service time coming into the season, and should remain under team control until the end of the 2016 season.

Snider had a great 2008, but since then, has not been able to hold down a job in the Majors.  At the conclusion of the 2008 season, I wrote a blog entry that compared Snider's first year numbers to those of Russ Adams.  I cannot find that entry any longer, but I will say now that Snider is definitely no Russ Adams.

What are the Blue Jays getting in Brad Lincoln?  A 27-year-old pitcher who was drafted 4th overall in the 2006 draft.  One place ahead of current Jays ace Brandon Morrow, 10 places ahead of Snider, and 14 places ahead of currently injured Blue Jays starter Kyle Drabek.

Lincoln was ranked as the 67th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America prior to the 2007 season, with Morrow ranked 87th and Snider ranked 53rd.  At the start of the 2012 season, Lincoln had tallied just 143 days of Major League service, meaning that he will be under team control until the end of the 2018 season.  Two years longer than Snider.

In 51 career games, Lincoln has made 22 starts.  He is 5-9 with a 5.65 ERA in those 22 starts, and 2-0 with a 1.87 ERA in 29 relief appearances.  In 2010, Lincoln was pretty bad.  He went 1-4 with a 6.57 ERA in 9 starts, with 3.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.  He really only had one good start that year, which came against the Cubs On June 30th, where he tossed 7 innings of 4-hit shutout ball.

The 2011 season saw an improvement to Lincoln's numbers as a starter.  He went 2-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 8 starts, with 5.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9.  His strikeouts were up, but so were his walks.  His groundball rate took a noticeable improvement, going from 37.2% in 2010 to 51.6% in 2011.  If you take out his one start on September 18th against the Dodgers in which he allowed 6 earned runs over 1.2 IP, his ERA drops to 3.12 over his other 7 starts.

In 2012, he has only been called on for 5 starts, going 2-2 with a 6.08 ERA in those 5 starts with a 7.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.  His strikeouts were up, his walks were down, but so was his groundball rate.  As a starter and reliever combined, he has a groundball rate of just 37.0%.  He made his first start on May 14, which was a good outing against Miami where he allowed just two runs over six innings.  His next starts came on June 6, 12, 17 and 23.  While the first three of those four were disastrous outings, he had a great outing on the 23rd against the Detroit Tigers, allowing just one run on a solo home run to Miguel Cabrera over six innings with seven strikeouts.  It should be noted that the Tigers have the 10th best offence in the Majors, averaging 4.50 runs per game.

As a reliever in 2012, Lincoln is 2-0 with a 0.50 ERA in 35.2 innings with 10.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9.  These are great numbers for a reliever, and Lincoln could potentially become a setup man for the Blue Jays or even replace Casey Janssen as a closer.  However, I would like to see a different approach.

Simply when going by Lincoln's K/9 and BB/9 numbers, the current Blue Jays starter that they are most comparable with for this season is Brandon Morrow.  Lincoln's 7.6 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 stack up nicely to Morrow's 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, but Lincoln's K/BB ratio of 3.33 is much better than Morrow's 2.79.  In fact, Lincoln's K/BB ratio is much better than all the current Jays starters, despite the small sample size of only five starts.

The problem Lincoln seems to be having this year, much like Brett Cecil, is with the long ball.  Lincoln has allowed a disturbing 2.3 HR/9, higher than Cecil's 1.8.  If this number can be lowered, I truly believe that the Jays did not acquire a great setup man, but a genuine #2 starter to slot behind Morrow.

The article I linked to earlier in this post states, "Lincoln’s average fastball speed this season is in the 92- to 93-mph range and he also throws a curveball and the occasional changeup."  According to FanGraphs, it has been at an average of 93.2 MPH.  What the article fails to mention is that he has done that a lot as a reliever.  In 2010 and 2011, he was averaging 91.6 and 91.8 respectively, when primarily being used as a starter.  He also used a change-up in those two years, whereas this year, he has relied much more heavily on his curveball and even used a splitter on a rare occasion.

I am not saying that the Jays will make him a starter, I just think it would be in the best interest of the team to at least give it a try.  When the Jays traded for Brandon Morrow, he was constantly being put back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation, much like Lincoln has been.  I realize that Morrow was younger at the time of the acquisition, as the two are currently the same age, but the similarities are there.

Daniel Bard as a starter was a failed attempt by the Red Sox this season, but there are numerous other examples of success stories.  I genuinely believe that, if given enough time as a starter and not constantly being switched between the rotation and bullpen, Lincoln will be able to thrive.  He has shown the ability to be a starter in spots, let him do that over the course of a few consecutive starts.  His first and last starts of this year were his best of the five, give him double that number as a Blue Jay and we may have just stolen something away from the Pirates.

With the Jays still in the playoff hunt for this year, trying Lincoln in the rotation now may not be the best decision, but I at least hope that they give him a shot in Spring Training and that he will be an everyday starter for the Blue Jays at this time next year.

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Dan Uggla Turning Things Around

When the Atlanta Braves and Florida Marlins faced each other last night, Emilio Bonifacio's 26-game hitting streak came to an end.  However, Dan Uggla extended his streak to 20 games.

Uggla had a terrible start to the season, and was hitting below .200 until just recently.  However, he has really turned around his offensive production in July, hitting .297/.379/.582 in 24 games.  During the streak, Uggla has seen his numbers rise from .173/.241/.327 to .206/.278/.396 while hitting 7 of his 19 home runs on the year.

While Uggla is currently a long way from Tommy Holmes' franchise record of 37 games set in 1945, when the Braves were still in Boston, it is certainly nice to see him turning his season around.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Meet the Newest Blue Jay: Colby Rasmus

Yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays acquired Colby Rasmus from the St. Louis Cardinals. Many baseball people are saying that the Jays easily won this trade in the long-term, while many others are wondering why. This could be due to the fact that, despite his previous rankings on prospect lists, many people may not have heard of Rasmus until today. So, here's a little rundown on the Jays' newest position player.

The Basics
Rasmus was born August 11, 1986 in Columbus, Georgia. He is listed at 6 feet, 2 inches tall and 200 pounds, and both bats and throws left-handed. The Cardinals drafted him out of high school with the 25th overall pick in the 2005 draft, 22 spots after the Jays selected Ricky Romero. At the end of the 2008 season, MLB had him ranked as the #10 prospect in baseball, 2 spots behind current Blue Jay, Travis Snider. However, Baseball America ranked him 3rd on the list of top 100 prospects just two months later, in February of 2009, three spots ahead of Snider.

The Numbers
Rasmus managed to put up impressive numbers during his time in the minor leagues, seeing a line of .275/.381/.551 with 29 home runs and 18 stolen bases during the 2007 season with St. Louis' Double-A affiliate, the Springfield Cardinals.

Since coming to the Majors, Rasmus has posted a career line of .259/.334/.444, with 2010 being his best season at .277/.361/.498 with 23 home runs and 12 stolen bases. So far this year, he has 4 outfield assists and has committed 3 errors in 92 games in centre field for the Cardinals. Compare that to the 3 assists and 2 errors that the Blue Jays centre fielders have posted so far this year, and it does not seem like much of a difference, but Rasmus' arm is certainly better than Rajai Davis'.

One cause for concern, at least for the moment, are Rasmus' strikeout numbers. Last year, he struck out 148 times in 464 at-bats. This year, he has struck out 77 times in 338 at-bats. This leads to numbers of 3.0 AB/K last year and an improvement to 4.1 AB/K this year. Still, J.P. Arencibia currently leads the Jays with 87 strikeouts, followed by the departed Corey Patterson's 65, and then Adam Lind's 62.

Rasmus has also grounded into 8 double plays this year, only Juan Rivera (11) and Yunel Escobar (10) have grounded into more this year for the Jays, though three guys have hit into 7.

Off The Field
Much has been seen in the media about the supposed rift between Rasmus and Cardinals manager Tony La Russa. Just read this article from last September or this one from yesterday morning, posted only minutes before we first heard of the possibility of Rasmus heading to the Jays.

This feels like another situation the Blue Jays took advantage of last year, involving Yunel Escobar, then a member of the Atlanta Braves. Escobar had fallen out of favour with many members of the Braves, and the Blue Jays took advantage of it while acquiring him for a seemingly low cost. Escobar was in the midst of a career-worst season, with a line of .238/.334/.284 at the time of the trade, and went .275/.340/.356 in his time with the Blue Jays. Escobar has improved in 2011, and is now in the midst of his best season in the Majors.

Perhaps the Blue Jays' coaching staff combined with the mentorship of Jose Bautista can help Rasmus to turn things around this season, and for the foreseeable future. The Blue Jays control his rights until the end of the 2014 season and he is now just two weeks shy of his 25th birthday. Many Jays fans are hoping that we have not seen the best of Rasmus yet.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Jo-Jo Reyes: Lefty Specialist?

When the Blue Jays picked up Yunel Escobar in a trade with the Atlanta Braves last season, they also acquired lefty Jo-Jo Reyes in the same deal. Reyes made only one Major League appearance last year. On April 12, while still pitching for the Braves, he allowed 9 runs in 3.1 innings. Starter Jair Jurrjens also pitched 3.1 innings that game, allowing 8 runs, so Reyes really did not do much worse. But both pitchers were quite ineffective against a rather poor Padres lineup.

With Reyes challenging for a spot in the rotation for the 2011 Blue Jays, I thought this was a great time to say that based on his prior stats, I think Reyes would be a great option as a lefty specialist with this year’s team. It is true that the team has many options for a lefty coming out of the bullpen, but I just do not see Reyes making the team out of Spring Training as a starter, barring any injuries to other pitchers. Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil are the top 3 pitchers, with as many as six other players competing with Reyes for the final two spots in the rotation.

Reyes has pitched in 41 Major League games over 4 seasons, starting 37 and coming into 4 others as a reliever. In that time, opposing batters have hit .297/.379/.512 against him. Those numbers are not exactly great. During that time, he has posted a 47.5% groundball rate, and averaged about 90.6 MPH on his fastball and throwing it 64.7% of the time according to FanGraphs.

But once you take a look at Reyes’ lefty/righty splits, you start to see some different numbers. Throughout his career, Reyes has struggled against righties, who have hit an alarming .320/.399/.549 against him. To put it in perspective, Vladimir Guerrero’s career slash line is .320/.383/.563, and is not exactly a hitter many pitchers want to face on a regular basis. Reyes’ numbers against lefties, however, are a much better .215/.301/.374.

The differences in these numbers make me think that Reyes would be a problem as a starter due to his inability to get right-handed batters out, but could be dominant as a lefty specialist. Other players such as David Purcey may be better options for a bullpen job at the moment, but with Reyes being out of minor league options, using him as a reliever may be the only way for him to stick with the Blue Jays this season.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Rays Sign Two Former Red Sox Players

On the same day that their AL East foes trade away Vernon Wells, the Tampa Bay Rays have gone out and signed Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez to one-year contracts.

With these signings, we could see some changes to the Rays’ lineup for the 2011 season. Despite their declining defensive abilities, Damon and Ramirez managed to prove their worth this past season. Damon hit .271/.355/.401 in 145 games for the Detroit Tigers while Ramirez hit .298/.409/.460 in a suspension-shortened 90 games for the Dodgers and White Sox.

There is no doubt that the Rays are a better team with these two players in the lineup. But one must ask: Where do they fit in?

At the moment, the Rays have a good roster of quality players. They lost Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford to free agency this off-season, but Damon and Ramirez will help to ease the pain. Both Damon and Ramirez are outfielders, so that is obviously where they will play if they do not DH, but what happens with the rest of the Rays already on the roster?

Ben Zobrist, who started 80 games in right field, figures to move back to the infield. He started 81 games at second base for the Rays in 2009, and could very well move back to that position. Another option is to see Reid Brignac play second, but whatever happens, it is highly likely that Zobrist and Brignac are set to be the middle infielders for the Rays this season. Evan Longoria is a lock to return at third base, there really is not any dispute here. First base could likely be filled by Dan Johnson, but the Rays may also try to acquire somebody else to play that position.

As to where Damon and Ramirez fit in, let us first look at who they already have. B.J. Upton recently avoided arbitration with the team by signing a contract that will pay him $4.825-million this year. Compared to Damon and Ramirez, Upton is much faster and can still cover a lot of ground so he will almost certainly play centre field for the team this year.

This brings us to the issue of three positions for only a few players. Left field, right field and designated hitter are open at the moment. Who will fill these spots? Likely Damon, Ramirez, Matt Joyce or Desmond Jennings. The first three players I mentioned certainly have defensive deficiencies, while Jennings lacks Major League experience and will have to have a great Spring Training to get a spot on the 25-man roster in April.

If I had to pick the lineup right now, I would slot Jennings in at the centre field position, move Upton over to right and allow Damon to play left field with Ramirez as the designated hitter. At the same time, I may even consider playing Joyce at first base instead of Dan Johnson. I have never really been a big fan of Mr. Johnson, but I definitely think that he would be valuable as a bench player.

These two signings by the Rays have certainly created some questions about this team and who will play where come Opening Day. While many people are expecting Desmond Jennings to be the loser in this situation, I’d expect him to come out of Spring Training with a starting job, leaving Damon and Ramirez competing for playing time in the field with one of them being the designated hitter for the team.

See You Later, Vernon

Alex Anthopoulos continues to put his mark on the Toronto Blue Jays. With the recent trade of Vernon Wells to the Angels, the Blue Jays have rid themselves of an expensive contract. In return, the Blue Jays received Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera. I have had many people asking me for my opinion on the deal, so here it is.

Napoli, expected to split time behind the plate and at first base, hit .238/.316/.468 for the Angels in 2010 which was arguably one of the worst offensive seasons of his career. However, he still managed to hit a career-high 26 home runs for the Halos.

The 32-year-old Rivera also had a down year. He hit .252/.312/.409 while spending most of his time in left field, a position where the left-handed batting Travis Snider is expected to play for the Blue Jays.

Rivera comes to the Blue Jays as a likely fourth outfielder. It is likely that we will see Jose Bautista remain in right with the newly acquired Rajai Davis playing centre and Snider in left, with Rivera likely taking over when somebody needs a day off.

Wells’ much maligned contract was considered by many as one of the worst signings made by former general manager J.P. Ricciardi. As recently as last week, Wells himself stated that he was probably not worth his contract. A contract that paid him $126-million over 7 years was seen as a good investment at the time. But in the four seasons that have passed since signing the richest contract in Blue Jays history, Wells has been a disappointment.

V-Dub played in approximately 88% of the teams’ games since 2007, while most notably missing 54 games during the 2008 season. He has been plagued by various groin and shoulder injuries, but has played through these injuries at times. His slash line in the past 4 seasons of .267/.321/.450 is hardly worth $126-million over 7 years. Add to that his 82 home runs and 37 steals, for an average of 20.5 and 9.25 per season respectively, and things begin to look a little more dim.

Is Wells a good player? Of course he is. He is still an elite centre fielder, and should play the position for the Angels despite a decline in range in recent years. Is he a $20-million per year player? Not at all. I’d even be inclined to argue against him being a $10-million per year player.

From the Jays’ point of view, this trade is a great investment. With four years and $86-million remaining on Wells’ contract, the Jays have managed to unload a financial burden while bringing in talented players who can contribute immediately. At $5.25-million, Rivera is currently the highest-paid Blue Jay for 2011. However, Napoli could get slightly more either through arbitration or negotiation after earning $3.6-million in 2010. That said, Bautista could earn more than both of them after his monstrous 2010 season.

How else does this trade benefit the Blue Jays? I have already mentioned the financial aspects of the deal, which will allow the team to either pursue other free agents or trades in the future or for them to lock up the players they already have in long-term deals such as Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil. I have mentioned the modified outfield situation, but I have failed to mention anything about how Napoli can contribute to this team.

Napoli is not known as a catcher with great defensive prowess. In 2010, he threw out just 27% of potential base stealers, and has thrown out just 24% in his career. Although he did spend more time at first base in 2010 than he did behind the plate, one would think that he should see more time behind the plate for the Jays.

A catching tandem of Napoli and Molina is more appealing to me than a tandem of John Buck and Molina. But this leaves J.P. Arencibia as the odd man out. Despite tearing it up in Triple-A, Arencibia failed to impress at the Major League level aside from his debut where he went 4-for-5 with 2 home runs.

That said, if Arencibia has a good spring, we could see him and Molina as the Jays’ catching tandem with Napoli as the starting first baseman. This would allow Adam Lind to be the DH, and, despite claims to the contrary, we could see Edwin Encarnacion assume his typical role at third base. I am still not convinced that he will spend most of his time at first base. I realize it was claimed that he would play first base, but this trade could change things slightly.

It has been reported that Brett Lawrie, the player the Jays acquired for Shaun Marcum, has been working out at third base in the off-season. It is an interesting move for a player who was drafted as a catcher, but certainly not strange as we have seen many catchers move to the hot corner in recent history. Some people seem to think he is ready for the Majors right now. So, this trade has certainly created some interesting competitions within the organization for spots in the starting lineup this spring.

Overall, I think both teams are winners here. The Blue Jays rid themselves of a terrible contract, thus freeing up money over the next four years that can be spent elsewhere. While not elite offensive players, Napoli and Rivera can certainly contribute to this team. Rivera has been a .300 hitter twice in his career, while Napoli could bounce back from a below average 2010 to provide some power and offence from behind the plate. The Angels obtain one of the best defensive outfielders in the game who could potentially hit 30 home runs in Anaheim while trading away another outfielder and an offensive catcher who struggled this past season.

It remains to be seen what else Anthopoulos does with this Jays’ team. All I can say at the moment is that I am extremely excited when it comes to the future of this franchise.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Milwaukee Brewers Should Keep Prince Fielder

He stands 5 feet, 11 inches tall and is listed as weighing 270 pounds. He was the seventh overall pick in the 2002 draft and is entering his final year of arbitration. To the Milwaukee Brewers, Prince Fielder is an integral part of the team.

Coming off the worst season of his career, rumours are swirling as to what Brewers GM Doug Melvin will do this off-season. Does he trade his prized possession in the hopes of re-stocking his farm system, or does he hold onto Fielder and make a push for the playoffs in 2011?

Fielder's 2010 salary of $10.5-million was affordable for the Brewers, but what will he get this year if he goes to arbitration? His 2010 season does not indicate that a huge raise is on the horizon, but someone could probably expect a salary of around $13-$15-million for the 2011 season. The fact that the Brewers have failed to lock up Fielder long term tells me that he definitely intends to test free agency after the 2011 season where he could fetch upwards of $20-million a year on the open market.

However, at this point, Fielder may not be the prize of the 2011 free agent market. First basemen Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals and Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres are also due to hit free agency at the same time, and provided neither player is signed to a lucrative contract over the next year, we may see a very interesting off-season next year regarding first basemen.

What exactly does Fielder bring to the Brewers? His 50 home runs during the 2007 season are a start. The fact that he almost hit .300 last year while finish with a .299 batting average is something else. But in 2010, he had probably the lowest offensive output of his career. His slash line of .261/.401/.471 is impressive, but not by his own standards. He led the National League with 114 walks, but had less than 100 RBI for the first time since 2006 while posting a total of just 83 this year.

The low number for RBI can perhaps be offset by teammates Casey McGehee, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart having totals of 104, 103 and 102 respectively. Fielder still led the team with 32 home runs and made just 4 errors in the field all season.

The Brewers had no problems with offence in 2010, but if they can improve their starting rotation for the 2011 season, I think it would be better for them to hold onto Fielder for the season. Of their starters, only Yovani Gallardo had an ERA below 4. Only three National League teams scored more runs than the Brewers in 2010, but at the same time, only two teams allowed more runs. If the Brewers do trade Fielder, they would need to receive pitching in return and go out and get a replacement.

Another way of improving their pitching staff would be to trade prospect Brett Lawrie. Lawrie could certainly get the Brewers some young pitching that could be with the team for years to come, and it would not compromise the 2011 season. Trading away top prospects like Lawrie is always hard, but for the Brewers, it may be worth it in this case.

Essentially, I think that the Milwaukee Brewers should hang onto Prince Fielder this season and attempt to improve their pitching any way they can. If they had even remotely respectable pitching this past season, they would have reached the playoffs. Beyond Gallardo, their starting rotation left a lot to be desired. Some may argue that guys like Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson had winning records. But if you think about it, would other pitchers with their ERAs really have that many wins on teams with much lower run support? Likely not. The Brewers have a strong offensive team, but just need to improve their pitching to be successful. If they can acquire some effective starters and relievers this off-season while keeping Fielder in the lineup, they could very well run away with the division title.